Irrational Crude Oil

September 18, 2007

The crude oil market is once again acting irrationally. Goldman Sachs came out with a piece saying crude could hit the $85 to $100 per barrel point very soon. That alone is usually cause for us to take the opposite side and short this market.

Aat the end of July, I started writing about crude hitting new highs for no apparent reason. We said buy the 70 put options, and if you did you made a very nice return. We're watching for a set up to repeat this trade.

On Wednesday, Sept. 19 the API/Energy Stocks inventory report comes out at 10:30 am EST. There is a good chance the report will show a larger than expected draw down on crude supplies, mostly due to the Huston Ship Channel shutting down for Humberto last week. This could cause a one or two day spike in prices, followed by another sharp move down.

A 50% move down from today's high ($81.11) to August's low would place the Nov. crude oil contract in the $75 range. A Nov. put option with a $75 strike closed today at .83, or $830. If crude oil falls back to this price range within one or two weeks that option would be worth over $2,000 - a pretty nice return for a quick, short-term trade.

We are bearish on crude for these reasons: world inventories are high; the Middle East is relatively calm (Ramadan just started); there have been few storms to disrupt the Gulf shipping lanes and finally, we're winding down out of the gas-guzzling months.

What could mess up this trade: interest rates falling could give traders a reason to think we're suddenly going to start using a lot more oil since the economy will pick up the pace; a big hurricane hitting the Gulf or slowing imports from Mexico; Mid-East troubles and finally, hedge funds continuing to bid up the contract.

Irregardless, we want to buy our puts in the .70 to .80 range, looking for a first goal of of the market hitting $75, then $70. This should give us a two-times investment return on the first leg and a three-to-four times return if Nov. crude can get back to $70.

We are still bullish on natural gas and heating oil. Nat. Gas is a good seasonal play this time of year thanks to Gulf storms, and heating oil is expected to be in shorter supply this year, as we said in the "Battle for Acreage" post on Sept. 11.

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.

Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.

How High Can Wheat Go?

The above is a monthly chart of wheat prices going back to 1993. Notice the circle drawn around the (at the time) record high prices in the $7.50 range way back in 1996. Also notice how far and how fast wheat prices dropped through the floor. Are we set to repeat that same price action?

Quite possibly. Yes, there is tremendous world-wide demand for wheat, and that's set prices sky-rocketing to new record heights. The U.S. and Canada are among the few countries in the world that is experiencing a fantastic wheat harvest, and all the other countries are knocking on our door to tender purchase offers.

Once the buying is done and the harvest is complete prices almost always start falling. In the last few days there have been more stories that the wheat crop is coming in larger than expected, that Australia's drought isn't as bad as expected, and new seeding in Canada will be over double what it was this year. Therefore, I'm buying put options on wheat futures.

Last week we picked up a few Dec. $6.40 puts, and will adding more if wheat prices continue to move down from the highs. Wheat had two limit-up days this week, and finally profit taking and slightly bearish news sent prices downward Thursday, and in pre-market we're seeing prices down nearly four cents. I'm looking at all puts with a strike price from $7.00 to $6.40, and will also be looking at March '08 puts in the same strike range. These puts are quite a bit more expensive, but, like the Dec. puts, I'm looking for at least a five-time return on my investment.

The wheat market is still going to be a roller-coaster for the next month. I would not go short the futures just yet - those two limit-up days would have set your account down at least a total of $3,000 per contract - so options is the way to go. Strap yourself in - this is going to be a fun ride.

Energy Update:

Unless Israel goes to war with Syria, look for crude oil prices to come back down fairly quickly. There is still little in the way of hurricane news to disrupt pipelines. API/EIA oil, gas and distillate inventory data showed slightly larger drawdowns than expected, but that usually means next week's number will out-of-line the other way - meaning they will report larger inventories than expected, driving down prices.

I would still be a buyer of crude oil and RBOB gas put options.

For natural gas, however, I would start watching for signs of an up-move and look at going long or buying call options. Chesapeake Energy released a press release stating that it will cut production by about 6%. The company did not say why it was curtailing production, but the fact that natural gas is near its lowest point since September 2004 could have something to do with it. Look for other natural gas drillers to follow suit (just like the OPEC cartel!) With less natural gas being produced, prices will naturally begin to rise. Is it just a coincidence they curtail production as the heart of hurricane season arrives? Not likely.

I would look at the Dec. $9.00 natural gas call. It will set you back about $3,000, but the charts show $9.00 is a good area that natural gas was trading for the past few months. And, if it gets back to the $10 area, where it was during the early summer, you would make a very worthwhile return on your investment.

OJ Update

Nov. OJ futures set a new low on Wednesday, then bounced back to finish the day in positive territory. Thursday saw a slight up-tick, so we'll keep a close eye on this contract in case we finally found the bottom. We're looking at the Dec. 160 and Dec. 140 calls, which finished yesterday at .50 and .95 respectively.

I think a lot of the up-move was caused by the new tropical depression that is trying to form off Florida's northeast coast, but the maps show this would probably be more of a threat to New York than to the citrus groves.

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.
Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.

Season for Energy Trades

September 3, 2007

With Fall approaching, now is the time to look at the energy markets for some quick, short term swing trades. The crude oil, RBOB gas and natural gas contracts tend to be very volatile at this time of year, fueled mainly by the devastation hurricanes cause in the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast.

Often, just the threat of bad weather will send energy futures climbing. But, just as prices soar at threats of production shut-downs, they also drop back very quickly when the pipelines start working again.

Swing trading these markets is not for the faint of heart. First, they move very quickly, often overnight, which means your protective stops may get run over and you're out a lot more money then you had planned on losing. Second, they're very expensive. Margin on one crude oil contract is $4,000. RBOB gas is $6,075 and natural gas is a jaw-dropping $10,125!

You can, however, get into the energy markets with mini contracts: oil is $2,025; RBOB is $3,375 and natural gas is $2,531.

We also like to use out-of-the-money options with strikes at areas we are looking for the market to turn. Yes, in volatile markets options tend to be expensive, but we also prefer them for money-management as our maximum loss will never exceed the price for the option.

As I write this, hurricane Felix is moving on a path just south of where Dean hit, and should cross the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Two weeks ago when Dean hit the Gulf, most of the Mexican oil pipelines shut down. As Mexico is one of the biggest exporters of oil to the U.S., we saw a drop in crude oil inventories with the Aug. 29 report. This caused oil futures to jump almost $2.00 per barrel that day, and prices are still hovering at their highest point since the second week of August. This map from the NOAA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205025.shtml?5day#contents ) show that the eye of Felix may not cross back into the Gulf, and it may weaken substantially. Our strategy here would be to short crude and RBOB futures or buy put options on oil and RBOB.

For crude oil, I like the Dec. 69 puts. $69.00 seems to be a good support level for Dec. crude, and prices quickly fell to that level two weeks ago when Dean proved to be not as devastating to the oil infrastructure as first thought. Remember, though, that the supply from Mexico will still be slowed, and the next week (after the API/EIA energy stocks reports come out on Wednesday) oil could see another big up-move. Protective stops are an absolute, and if you get a profit at your goal make sure you cash it in quickly.

We could also do the same trade with the same plan with RBOB gas. Using the Dec. contract we would short with a goal at 1.82, or buy put options with a 1.82 strike.

With natural gas, we're staying on the sidelines for now unless a hurricane moves deeper into the Gulf and threatens the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Also, reports show that we're sitting on record inventories of natural gas, and that's keeping prices at extreme lows, in the $5.34 area. Here's a link to Platt's, a company that publishes some great analysis on the energy markets: http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/Futures/index.xml .

We will keep an eye on natural gas, and look at the Dec. '07 or Jan. '08 for a possible call option trade. We'd be looking mostly at Jan. in the $9.00 to $9.60 strike range as many articles hint that natural gas could run back to the $10 area if a big storm hits the Gulf coast states.

OJ Update:

We still think buying some OJ calls will be a money-maker if Florida gets threatened by a big enough storm. Soon after our last post, a new report came out saying the OJ crop will be much larger than forecasted back in the spring. That sent futures prices back to their lows of the year. We'll keep watching this trade for the rest of the month. Nov. 160 calls are now at .50, or about $75 each before commissions. The Nov. 140 calls at now 1.55, or about $230 each, and that may be a more realistic goal as the contract is trading at 118.

As we write this, there is a possibility that a tropical depression is forming off the north east coast of Florida (refer back to the map above). We will keep a close eye on this.

Bill's Soymeal Recommendation:

I apologize that I haven't done more in talking about Bill's soymeal call option trade from the last post as my vacation got in the way. It has been a very fruitful trade for those who got in: the Jan. 250 soymeal call options have better than doubled in price to $12.85 as of this writing.

Wheat Poised for a Tumble?

I'm getting real excited that the wheat market is getting ready for a huge drop. It's sitting on record highs ($8.00 per bushel for Dec. '07). The last time wheat hit nosebleed altitude (back in mid 1996) it quickly dropped like a rock, making thousands of dollars for those who were short. I started to pick up some Dec. 6.40 put options late last week. Why the options? Because there is still a chance I'm jumping in front of a fast-moving train. There is still a lot of fundamental supply issues that could keep wheat at high levels, and the market has a habit of gapping up and moving over 20 points a day (each point is worth $50 - so that's a $1,000 this contract can move without batting an eye).

As I write this Monday evening, wheat has gapped up over 20 points and will likely continue to test its highs on Tuesday. Keep a close eye on this market: there are a lot of hedge funds who are long wheat, and another drop in prices could see them dumping their contracts and pushing prices back to the $6.00 level, which on the charts look to be a reasonable support area.

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.

Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.