Update on Recommendations

Here’s an update on the trades we’ve been looking at since the letter I sent you two weeks ago. Below is a copy of the letter with updated charts to show how the trades progressed. My new comments are in italics. Hope you find this interesting.

Here are also a few of the markets on our “radar screen” that we are monitoring for either current trades or ones we are waiting to jump into:

April Live Cattle:
April Cattle has been stuck in the lower band of a $98 to $91 trading range. We’re looking at selling $91 put options on this contract for a $300 to $400 credit. They expire on April 4. In addition, we would look to either buy the April futures or sell a $98 call option if cattle begins to move upward. Each $1.00 move in cattle is equal to $400 if you hold a futures contract.

We sold an April 91 put for a $380 credit. While we had some nice moves up for a few days in the past two weeks, the pricing of the 98 calls were not attractive enough to take. The cattle market looks to be consolidating, and most analysts are looking at the further-out months to look to get long as current inventory is brought to market. We are also looking at the further out lean hogs (June contract) to get long very soon. For now the April 91 puts have dropped to $240, giving us a nice profit.

May Orange Juice:
Orange Juice is one of the few futures contracts that are not experiencing insanely high prices. A strong supply of juice from Florida and Brazil, along with high prices at the store level, has kept the OJ contracts at depressed prices. We think commodity funds will be looking for more areas to put their money in, and OJ may be the next market to catch their eyes.

In addition, hurricane season is coming in just a few months. Florida did not have a single strong hurricane last year, but what’s the chance of that happening again? Hurricane scares often move the OJ futures contracts sharply higher. We are looking at a few ways to play this market:

First, we are looking at a bull call option spread in May OJ – buying the May 130 calls for around 4.75 cents ($712.50) and selling the May 140 calls for around 1.90 cents ($285) for a net cost of around $427 for each spread. There is good resistance in the 140 price range, and the options expire on April 18, so we have time for the trade to work out. Ideally, we’ll see a move back to near 140, then start moving back down. Cash out of the in-the-money 130s for about a $1,000 profit and let the 140s drop to around $200 or less and cash them out or let them expire worthless.

We entered the bull spread on the 20th, buying the May 130 call at 4.90 ($735) and selling the May 140 call at 2.15 ($322) for a net cost of 2.75 points, or $412. We almost bailed on the trade on the 22nd when the market took a huge slide down but waited it out. We’re nervous about today’s price action as the contract failed to close near the higher points in its range and that seemed to hit resistance at the trendline. We are now thinking the sell side of this market is the place to be near term (we still like calls in the further out contracts) and will look to bail on this position on weakness on Monday and switch to May 125 puts in the 3.75 point area ($562) or the May 120 puts for about 2.15 points ($322). For the current trade the spread has widened slightly and we’re up about $44.

In addition, if the OJ continues to fall, we could look at picking up some May 135 calls or 140 calls on the cheap, and maybe sell some further out calls or puts help finance the trade.
Next, taking a longer term outlook for OJ, we look at a similar trade with the July or September contracts and look for a hurricane play. A July 145 call is only about $450 now, with expiration at the end of June. September is much more costly with a 145 call at over $800, but it won’t expire until Aug. 15. Margin on an outright OJ contract is just under $2,000, so buying some longer-out contracts may also be a good way to go as we would not have to worry about time running out on the options.

May Wheat:
The wheat market, as well as corn and soybeans, have been crazy this past year. These markets have been so volatile it’s been hard to find logical entry points. We feel, however, that wheat is especially due for a correction in price. We don’t like stepping in front of moving trains, but we also can’t overlook that more money can be had on price drops as on increases.

We’re looking at a bear put spread for May Wheat – buying a $9.00 put for 27-cents ($1,350) and selling an $8.50 put for 17.5 cents ($875) for a net cost per spread of just $475. These options expire on April 24, so we have two months for it to work out. Profit potential is on the $1,500 range, so risk versus reward is good.

We didn’t enter the put spread last week as the market drifted sideways and failed to take out the more recent lows. Then the daily limit curbs came off and the wheat market went crazy! Once limits were expanded and margins increased prices started to fall, and we see $9.00 as being the next logical stop as wheat drives lower. We may have some bounces along the way, but we think $9.00 is a reachable target in the next two months. We entered this trade today, buying the $9.00 May puts for $17 cents ($850) and selling the $8.50 puts for 11 cents ($550) for a net cost of $300. We purchased just two sets for a cost of $600 as the margins on wheat will increase the further prices drop. At the end of the day we were up three cents on the spread for a profit of $150 each, a nice 50% increase for just a few hours!

Remember, as this is a debit spread we cannot lose more than the net cost of the options.

Coffee:
The coffee market is another that has experienced huge price movements recently. We’re looking for a pull-back into the 140 to 145 range to get long again, either with outright futures or options. Coffee should be a strong market his year as it is an “off” production year for Brazil, so supply could be a huge issue.

Coffee generally stays within a range of 120 to 150 most of the time, and we’ve been successful playing off those extremes with call option spreads and selling puts. If we can get the correction, we’ll be pulling the trigger to get long and ride another move to the 155 to 160 area.

Wow. Talk about a rocket of a market. We’re kicking ourselves for not just getting in long anywhere, but that’s not how we trade. Today’s trading action could be looked at as an “exhaustion” move as the contract jumped to new record high only to settle at the extreme low of the day. What I want to see are a few down days. Then I’ll draw a trendline down from the high. When we start moving up through that we’ll get long. Until then my long-standing phobia (and uncanny track-record) of buying the extreme highs will keep me on the sidelines for this market. Another possibility I’ll be sketching out on Monday would be selling out-of-the-money puts sometime in mid-March when the contracts have less than a month until expiration.

Other markets we’re focusing on this year will be the U.S. Dollar (long the index or short the foreign currencies); sugar on pullbacks and looking for weakness to get short gold, soybeans and crude oil.

We’re rethinking the above paragraph. We think the U.S. Dollar will bottom, but not until the mid-point of the year. We’ll wait until the June currency contracts are the lead to look at making a move here. We’re still bullish on sugar long term, and are considering a short on the May contract and a long on the October contract. As for gold, we got burned selling some calls last week with only a little time left and are now looking for a new pullback to get long. $1,000 gold is coming whether we like it or not.

The opinions contained within are those of the author and are not guaranteed. Always remember, there is a substantial risk of loss involved with trading futures and options. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Get Ready to Move on Crude Oil

October 2, 2007

We got a bigger than expected head-fake in the crude oil market last week, and that kept us out buying the Nov. 75 puts we talked about on Sept. 25. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we're going to wait for the energy inventory reports on Wed. at 10:30 a.m. If crude moves lower, we will get into the Dec. 70 puts (which settled today at .51, or $510 each).

November puts expire on Oct. 17, so the market will have to move down fast to make the trade worthwhile. We will therefore buy at least two of the Dec. 70 puts, selling one if Dec. crude hits $75 and keeping the second with a goal of it getting down to $70. For an investment of just over $1,000 we will be looking for a return of $4,000 to $5,000.

Grains Set for Tumble?
Wheat, corn, beans and oats all closed at or close-to limit down today. Some was profit taking off the incredible highs these markets have been seeing (in the case of wheat and soybeans), and a possible glut in supply in the case of corn.

Bill Zechmann, owner of Midwest Futures, came out with a recommendation letter yesterday suggesting the purchase of a Dec. 370 put and a sale (write) of a Dec. 400 call. Unfortunately, the market moved too fast today to get into the trade. When Bill wrote his recommendation you could have got into it for about $450 per contract. Now it would cost over $1,300! With corn dropping 20-cents today, you would be doing the money dance for sure!

We could still play this two ways: first, wait for corn prices to move up and make the spread a little more affordable. Second, since Bill thinks Dec. corn could drop back to the $3.00 range, a Dec. 330 put is trading at 9-cents ($450). These puts would almost triple in price if corn does indeed drop to $3.00.

Why are we bearish on corn? Big supplies and a higher yield as harvest continues throughout the country could see a much higher ending-stocks level than many experts originally thought. There will still be a big battle for acreage come next spring, and we'll quite possibly want to get back on the long side after this upcoming shakeout. For now, we think corn and wheat prices are set for a dramatic drop as the harvest season comes to a close.

Here is a link to a FutureSource story on corn: http://futuresource.quote.com/news/story.jsp?i=DJC00i7Y71002

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.

Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.

Irrational Crude Oil

September 18, 2007

The crude oil market is once again acting irrationally. Goldman Sachs came out with a piece saying crude could hit the $85 to $100 per barrel point very soon. That alone is usually cause for us to take the opposite side and short this market.

Aat the end of July, I started writing about crude hitting new highs for no apparent reason. We said buy the 70 put options, and if you did you made a very nice return. We're watching for a set up to repeat this trade.

On Wednesday, Sept. 19 the API/Energy Stocks inventory report comes out at 10:30 am EST. There is a good chance the report will show a larger than expected draw down on crude supplies, mostly due to the Huston Ship Channel shutting down for Humberto last week. This could cause a one or two day spike in prices, followed by another sharp move down.

A 50% move down from today's high ($81.11) to August's low would place the Nov. crude oil contract in the $75 range. A Nov. put option with a $75 strike closed today at .83, or $830. If crude oil falls back to this price range within one or two weeks that option would be worth over $2,000 - a pretty nice return for a quick, short-term trade.

We are bearish on crude for these reasons: world inventories are high; the Middle East is relatively calm (Ramadan just started); there have been few storms to disrupt the Gulf shipping lanes and finally, we're winding down out of the gas-guzzling months.

What could mess up this trade: interest rates falling could give traders a reason to think we're suddenly going to start using a lot more oil since the economy will pick up the pace; a big hurricane hitting the Gulf or slowing imports from Mexico; Mid-East troubles and finally, hedge funds continuing to bid up the contract.

Irregardless, we want to buy our puts in the .70 to .80 range, looking for a first goal of of the market hitting $75, then $70. This should give us a two-times investment return on the first leg and a three-to-four times return if Nov. crude can get back to $70.

We are still bullish on natural gas and heating oil. Nat. Gas is a good seasonal play this time of year thanks to Gulf storms, and heating oil is expected to be in shorter supply this year, as we said in the "Battle for Acreage" post on Sept. 11.

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.

Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.

OJ Trade Triggered; Storms Brewing in Gulf & Atlantic

September 13, 2007

We finally pulled the trigger on the Nov. OJ calls, picking up some 140 strikes for 1.95 each (a real crappy fill that didn't get executed until the end of the day - even us brokers can get crappy fills).

OJ jumped in price over 4% thanks to a combination of a new storm brewing in the Atlantic (the creatively titled Tropical Depression #8) and the new hurricane Humberto (springing out of nowhere, it's about to clobber Galveston and roll up into Louisiana and Alabama. Some tracks have it possibly coming into Florida, but most have it staying north). Commodity funds also saw the recent lows as good buying areas and have pushed prices through buy-stops, while producers are looking for a better area to start selling.

Looking at the chart from the NOAA, TD #8 looks like it could make a direct line for Florida. Or it could veer off to the north, south, or dipsy-doodle under Cuba, sneak into the Gulf and come in though the back door. Who knows? But, the threat is there, so as traders we want to be on the right side of the market.

The Nov. calls we bought expire on Oct. 19, so we need this trade to get legs soon for two reasons. First, time decay starts to take a bigger and bigger chunk out of the option's value as we get closer to expiration and are still out-of-the-money. Second, the USDA is releasing its projections for the 2007-2008 crop on Oct. 12, and it is expected to be higher than what the trade would like. This has the possibility of making for a volatile week. I would rather be sitting on the sidelines counting my earnings from this trade instead of being in it that late in the game.

This is also a good time to look at the natural gas trades. NG was up about $1.00 yesterday, and Humberto and TD #8 will certainly cause prices to continue to climb in the near future. We were suggesting put options on RBOB gas, but Humberto could cause some refinery disruptions. RBOB Oct. futures jumped back over $2.00 per gallon on Wednesday on these fears.

Finally, crude oil jumped for no apparent reason after OPEC said it would be raising its quotas. But, as zman's Energy Brain reported: "So why the early price uncertainty… The early uncertainty was the apples and oranges nature of the statement. In true Fed-fashion the powers that be in OPEC confused everyone. "500,000 that's built in, let's rally this thing" warred against "1.4 million! Holy Crap!"

…Followed by the spike into the close? Ultimately traders went for the record after the close, deciding that OPEC wouldn't be able to meet the additional 0.5 million by in a little over a month and a half. At least these are the current theories out there. Oil closed at $78.23, a new record for a front month NYMEX contract.

I think we test $80 soon. It of course depends on a variety of factors including the inventory report and what the IEA has to say about global oil demand in its report today, but I think we're going to knock on $80 and then fall back into the mid to low $70s over the next few weeks."

I might be looking at Nov. or Dec. crude oil puts in the $70 strike-price area very soon. Should cost in the $1,000-range.

Wheat (Finally) Tumbles

So the USDA comes out with its new crop production and supply demand reports. This country is about to become swamped in a sea of corn. So what does the market do? Push prices higher by 15-cents per bushel. Wheat supplies are reported to be so tight that we'll have near record low ending stocks and the wheat market does what? It ends the day down 30-cents. (Great for us since we have wheat puts, but very unexpected).

Why the wacky price movement? Fingers are pointed at soybeans, which we think are slated for the $10 or higher point very soon. The USDA says the crops are coming in with less yield than expected, Brazil is having issues with it's crop, and acreage is being taken away from soybeans in favor of corn and wheat.

If we can get the May '08 soybean contract to come back to the $9.20 area, we will take the latest Hightower Report recommendation and buy, with a goal of $10.23. They suggest a stop at $9.04, which equals a risk/reward of $800 to $5,000 (or a ratio in the area of 1:6, which is what we look for in a good trade.) Initial margin for soybeans is $2,430, while the mini-soybean contract is $486.

In the meantime, we will continue to monitor the wheat market and pile up on puts if it keeps sliding down.

If you would like some of the other recommendations from the last Hightower Report, send me an email at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com.

Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.

Battle for Acreage

September 11, 2007

Wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton will all be battling for acreage next spring as farmers try to decide which crop will provide them the biggest dollar return for their work.

This spring it was corn - fueled by record prices, falling ending usage numbers and strong forecasted demand, led by ethanol. But the farmers' dreams of $4.00 per bushel corn may be far in the past. Corn is currently trading in the $3.40 range, which is not bad considering it is usually in the $2.00 to $3.00 neighborhood.

But who can go wrong with wheat, now pushing an eye-popping $9.00 per bushel? Expectations are for farmers to switch their acreage in hopes of basically printing money. When farmers do this, however, it opens up a number of new trading opportunities.

First, there will be a shortage of corn, soybeans and cotton next year. The Hightower Report today released a special report called the "Battle for Acreage," (if you would like a copy send an email to davidbrown@midwestfutures.com). It outlined several trading strategies for the coming year. If wheat and cotton grab acres away from corn, we'll have a shortage of corn and soybeans.

Prices for 2008 crops are still a little too high to start trading. We'll be buyers on pull-backs, and would most likely use futures rather than options as the time-premium for the strikes we're looking at are almost the same as futures margins.

Crop Report Out Wednesday Morning
The World Ag Supply & Demand report from the USDA is due out at 8:30 am on Wednesday. There are expected to be few surprises. Corn yields are expected to up, which may depress corn prices for the short-term. Wheat yields in the U.S. are expected to be up also, but worldwide demand is expected to create one of the smallest ending stocks ever, pegged at round 373 million bushels (which sounds like a lot, but evidently is not).

Wheat may continue to rise, pushing above the magic $9.00 per bushel price tag and eyeing the coveted $10 club. Every single newsletter I read, however, says that this market has to start moving down as harvest gets more underway. Also, much attention has been shifted to Australia's drought in some wheat-growing areas (other reports have some areas claiming record production, however), and all eyes will be on if they get any rain in the next two weeks. Some weather reports say yes while others say it will not be enough to boost yields.

Anyway, I'm still jumping on Dec. '07 and March '08 wheat puts when this freight train finally slows down. I would also think about spreading, buying Dec. '08 corn and selling Dec. '08 wheat, but the margin is still higher than I would like (pushing $1,700 initial). Whatever happens, it should be an interesting day!

Heating Oil Shortage?
Saw a great story on zman's Energy Brain's website that distillates used for heating oil are at record lows. This coincided with the heating oil contract setting new highs. With several refiners getting ready for maintenance breaks, he does not see the supply pipelines for heating oil to begin filling very soon. We would be buyers of heating oil contracts (or call options) on the next pullback on this contract.

Hurricane centers say there is some new tropical storm activity, and this could help natural gas jump in price as well. As reported in the last post, we are very bullish on natural gas. The market is finally moving up off some severe lows, and a storm threat could be enough for our option contracts to see a nice pop.

If you have any questions or comments please send me a note at davidbrown@midwestfutures.com. Futures and options trading is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The risk of loss can be substantial. Neither the information presented or any of the opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities.